Merck KGaA’s latest pipeline woes place more urgency on deals
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Merck KGaA’s shares fell as much as 10% on Tuesday as the latest late-stage failure – this time for xevinapant – raised more questions over the company’s pharmaceutical pipeline and its ability to meet growth targets. "This is (another) surprising setback for the healthcare pipeline. We continue to like the Merck story, but concede the company will need to rebuild credibility regarding its pipeline prowess," Barclays analysts remarked.
Xevinapant – which Merck in-licensed from Debiopharm – was being studied in the Phase III TrilynX and X-Ray Vision trials for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The company said Monday that both studies would be discontinued after an interim analysis determined that TrilynX was unlikely to meet its primary endpoint of improving event-free survival.
The inhibitor-of-apoptosis proteins (IAP) antagonist was Merck’s lead oncology pipeline asset and its failure follows a similar fate for the BTK inhibitor evobrutinib in multiple sclerosis in March. Following the two setbacks, analysts at Stifel Nicolaus said Merck “has little to show for internal and externally licensed R&D that are supposed to shoulder some Mavenclad/Cladribine expiry in 2027.”
Larger deals likely
Meanwhile, analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that “whilst xevinapant was not key to our investment thesis, this headline further challenges the growth outlook of the healthcare business,” adding “there is now likely more debate on how to reinvigorate R&D at [the] healthcare business, which continues to weigh on shares.” Merck had pinned its hopes on the success of evobrutinib and xevinapant in helping the healthcare segment achieve growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range over the medium term.
Morgan Stanley analysts also noted that while “Merck's management believes that the healthcare business could still grow even without xevinapant… we believe Merck may now be more likely to reallocate capital to larger healthcare deals in order to rebuild the pipeline.”
In March, the pharma’s CEO Belén Garijo said that moving forward, more than 50% of its drug launches are expected to come from external innovation, adding that deals “allow us to pick the desired assets to complement our portfolio.”
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