GSK ups forecast on strong Arexvy launch, Shingrix sales

2023-11-01

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·Firstwordpharma

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Headline results for the third quarter:

Revenue: £8.1 billion ($9.8 billion; forecasts of £7.8 billion), up 4%

Adjusted profit: £2 billion ($2.4 billion), versus £1.9 billion ($2.3 million) in the prior year

Note: All changes are versus the prior-year period unless otherwise stated

What the company said:

"GSK is delivering strong and sustained performance momentum, with another quarter of double-digit sales and earnings growth. Competitive performance was broadly based, but benefitted particularly from the outstanding US launch of Arexvy, the world's first RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) vaccine," said CEO Emma Walmsley.

Other results:

Speciality medicines: £2.6 billion, down 6% HIV product sales: £1.6 billion, up 19% Dovato: £477 million, up 32%

Triumeq: £373 million, down 20%

Tivicay: £340 million, down 1%

Cabenuva: £182 million, up 80%

Oncology product sales: £200 million, up 22% Zejula: £140 million, up 17%

Jemperli: £45 million, up >100%

Blenrep: £10 million, down 72%

Nucala: £413 million, up 13%

Benlysta: £349 million, up 13%

General medicines: £2.3 billion, down 10% Respiratory: £1.5 billion, down 10% Trelegy/Ellipta: £537 million, up 15%

Seretide/Advair: £202 million, down 24%

Relvar/Breo Ellipta: £239 million, down 23%

Vaccine sales: £3.2 billion, up 30% Shingrix: £825 million, up 9%, but missing consensus estimates of £851 million

Arexvy: £709 million, double what analysts were expecting and coming in well ahead of the $375 million Pfizer reported earlier this week for its rival RSV vaccine Abrysvo

Bexsero: £266 million, down 3%

Menveo: £168 million, up 7%

Looking ahead:

GSK upgraded its full-year guidance for 2023 and now predicts revenues will grow between 12% and 13%, from a previous expectation of 8% to 10%. Meanwhile, adjusted operating profit is forecast to grow between 13% and 15%, from an earlier range of 11% to 13%.

The company said it assumes that Arexvy sales "will track in line with high-dose flu analogues," adding that full-year sales of the RSV jab are expected to be between £900 million ($1.1 billion) and £1 billion ($1.2 billion).

"Our excellent execution supports an upgrade to our full-year 2023 guidance and we have clear momentum as we look ahead to deliver our 2026 outlooks. GSK’s longer-term outlook also continues to strengthen, with progress in our vaccines pipeline, the development of our ultra-long-acting HIV portfolio and significant new prospects in respiratory," Walmsley said.

What analysts said:

Quilter Cheviot healthcare research analyst Sheena Berry said the US launch of Arexvy "is going well due to strong demand, but also benefiting from some initial inventory build." The analyst noted that "GSK offers good earnings growth potential for investors, but with risks still present, focus has to turn to business development to enhance the pipeline and product offering to help it continue this growth in the medium and long terms."

Pipeline updates:

GSK has dropped three programmes from Phase I. The company discontinued the anti-LAG-3 antibody encelimab, also known as GSK4074386, which it obtained via its from 2019 acquisition of Tesaro, and did the same with the Sting agonist GSK3745417 Sting agonist GSK3745417. In addition, the company pulled GSK2904545, an adjuvanted recombinant protein under development for C. difficile.

($1 = £0.824660)

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