Services PMI® at 56.9%; August 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business®

2022-09-06

引进/卖出

Business Activity Index at 60.9%; New Orders Index at 61.8%; Employment Index at 50.2%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 54.5%

TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 6, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the

services sector

grew in August for the 27th month in a row — with the Services PMI® registering 56.9 percent — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest

Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In August, the Services PMI® registered 56.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than July's reading of 56.7 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 60.9 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the reading of 59.9 percent in July. The New Orders Index figure of 61.8 percent is 1.9 percentage points higher than the July reading of 59.9 percent.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.5 percent, 3.3 percentage points lower than the 57.8 percent reported in July. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"The Prices Index decreased for the fourth consecutive month in August, down 0.8 percentage point to 71.5 percent. Despite an improvement in inventory levels, services businesses still continue to struggle to replenish their stocks, as the Inventories Index contracted for the third consecutive month; the reading of 46.2 percent is up 1.2 percentage points from July's figure of 45 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (47.1 percent, down 3 percentage points from July's reading of 50.1 percent) moved back into contraction territory in August."

Nieves continues, "According to the Services PMI®, 14 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 27th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues — at a slightly faster rate — for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 151 months. The services sector had a slight uptick in growth for the month of August due to increases in business activity, new orders and employment. Based on comments from Business Survey Committee respondents, there are some supply chain, logistics and cost improvements; however, material shortages remain a challenge. Employment improved slightly despite a restricted labor market."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE

The 14 services industries reporting growth in August — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Construction; Educational Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Other Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in the month of August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

"Starting to see some cost pressures relief; the overall supply environment is healthy." [Accommodation & Food Services]

"Some pullback on projects by clients, but activity is still strong for our company. This has alleviated some labor availability issues. Generally, there has been improvement in lead times and prices, but still longer and higher, respectively, than in 2021." [Construction]

"Supply chain issues continue to significantly extend lead times, with a shortage of materials to build scientific equipment and machinery contributing to the issue. Purchases need to be made three to six months in advance, in addition to the normal lead time. As for the higher education industry, it is breaking records for student applicants." [Educational Services]

"The supply chain and labor continue to be significant issues. Repair parts are nonexistent. Lead times for durable goods are extended, and the less-expensive, mass-produced products are breaking at increased rates — no QC (quality control). The FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) must be reeling because we have been reporting sometimes daily. I'm concerned that a certain percentage of faulty products are probably discarded, which adds to the cost of doing business. Surgery and other hospital products cannot be culled, so it's a complete loss — if they are red-bagged, that is another cost." [Health Care & Social Assistance]

"The supply chain challenges affect a portion of our buys as they include products and components made outside of the U.S. that are subject to shipping delays and other issues." [Management of Companies & Support Services]

"COVID-19 still affecting many businesses. Also, there is a labor shortage." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]

"Lingering concerns about inflation and price increases. Still having difficulties hiring staff to fill many positions." [Public Administration]

"No major changes. Concerns about the macroeconomic climate and consumer confidence." [Retail Trade]

"Very long lead times from major equipment — Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Commodity price escalation appears to be leveling." [Utilities]

"Business is pretty steady month to month, but we expect seasonal supply increase by September that will moderate prices." [Wholesale Trade]

Services

ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes.

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.

*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Chemicals (5); Chicken; Diesel Fuel* (21); Electrical Components (19); Fuel* (20); Hotel Rates (4); Labor (21); Labor — Construction; Labor — Contingent (2); Labor — Skilled; Labor — Temporary; Medical Gases; Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies; Medical Supplies (2); Natural Gas; Paper; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE); Safety Products; Soybean Oil; Steel Products* (20); and Travel (4).

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum Products (2); Beef; Dairy Products; Diesel Fuel*; Fuel* (2); Gasoline; Ocean Freight; and Steel Products*.

Commodities in Short Supply

Blood Collection Tubes; Electrical Components (5); Electronic Components; Electronic Parts; Fiberglass Door Slabs; IV Products; Lab Supplies; Labor (13); Labor — Construction; Labor — Skilled; Medical Supplies; Microchips (4); Paper; Potato Products; Tires; Tubing; and Vehicles (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Indicates both up and down in price.

AUGUST 2022 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI

In August, the Services PMI® registered 56.9 percent, a 0.2-percentage point increase compared to the July reading of 56.7 percent. The 12-month average is 59.7 percent, reflecting consistently strong growth in the services sector, which has expanded for 27 consecutive months. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI® above 50.1 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the August Services PMI® indicates the overall economy has followed the same path as the services sector: expansion for 27 straight months following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 122 months of growth. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI® for August (56.9 percent) corresponds to a 2.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI

HISTORY

Business Activity

ISM®'s Business Activity Index registered 60.9 percent in August, an increase of 1 percentage point from the reading of 59.9 percent in July, indicating growth for the 27th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: "Customer demand has increased" and "Activity is up due to material receipts that have allowed us to schedule and work more projects than last month."

The 11 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Information; Educational Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Finance & Insurance. The three industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

New Orders

ISM®'s New Orders Index registered 61.8 percent, up 1.9 percentage points from the July reading of 59.9 percent. New orders grew for the 27th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: "Economic situation is getting better, and the supply chain is improving" and "Large capital expenditure investments in renewable energy space."

Twelve industries reported growth of new orders in August, in the following order: Educational Services; Mining; Information; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The only industry reporting a decrease in new orders in August is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.

Employment

Employment activity in the services sector grew in August after two months of contraction. ISM®'s Employment Index registered 50.2 percent, up 1.1 percentage points from the July reading of 49.1 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Unable to hire enough people to fill jobs" and "(Head count) would be higher but there's some churn, as some employees transfer to other departments or leave for perceived better opportunities."

The eight industries reporting an increase in employment in August — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The seven industries reporting a decrease in employment in August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; and Utilities.

Supplier Deliveries

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.5 percent, down 3.3 percentage points from the 57.8 percent registered in July. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Still experiencing delays in some commodities" and "Constraints at U.S. ports and in highway transportation."

The 12 industries reporting slower deliveries in August — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of August are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Information.

Inventories

The Inventories Index contracted in August for the third consecutive month after four straight months of growth preceded by an eight-month period of contraction. The reading of 46.2 percent was a 1.2-percentage point increase from the 45 percent reported in July. Of the total respondents in August, 39 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Long lead times are causing us to eat up existing inventory" and "Dipping into inventory purchased earlier in the year to avoid price increases."

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in August — listed in order — are: Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; and Public Administration. The seven industries reporting a decrease in inventories in August — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Construction.

Prices

Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in August for the 63rd consecutive month, with the index registering 71.5 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than the 72.3 percent recorded in July. In the aftermath of July's month-over-month plunge of 7.8 percentage points, the Prices Index continues to indicate an approach toward equilibrium, with a second consecutive reading near 70 percent, following nine straight months of readings above 80 percent.

Seventeen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of August, in the following order: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Construction; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The only industry to report a decrease in prices in August is Accommodation & Food Services.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders

The ISM® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in August for the 20th consecutive month. The index registered 53.9 percent, a 4.4-percentage point decrease compared to the July reading of 58.3 percent. Of the total respondents in August, 39 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: "More orders for future work and not many starting up, resulting in an increased backlog" and "Long lead times on products; our backlog continues to grow steadily."

The six industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in August — listed in order — are: Information; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in August are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Seven industries reported no change in order backlogs for the month of August.

New Export Orders

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in August for the seventh consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 61.9 percent, a 2.4-percentage point increase from the 59.5 percent reported in July. Of the total respondents in August, 77 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The six industries reporting an increase in new export orders in August — listed in order — are: Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Public Administration; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in August are: Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade. Nine industries indicated no change in new export orders in August.

Imports

The Imports Index contracted in August for the third consecutive month, registering 48.2 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from July's reading of 48 percent. Sixty-six percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The six industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of August — listed in order — are: Public Administration; Information; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries that reported a decrease in imports in August are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Construction. Seven industries reported no change in imports in August.

Inventory Sentiment

The ISM® Services Inventory Sentiment Index contracted in August, the latest of several moves above and below the 50 percent breakeven line during the last two years. The index registered 47.1 percent, a 3-percentage point decrease from July's figure of 50.1 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too low when correlated to business activity levels.

The seven industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in August — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The seven industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in August — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Information; and Utilities.

About This Report

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The

Services

ISM® Report On Business® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Beginning in February 2020 with January 2020 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI® above 50.1 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 50.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 50.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The

Services

ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the

Services

ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management

Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM® Advance™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the

Services

ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next

Services

ISM® Report On Business® featuring September 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 5, 2022.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management