BACKGROUNDThe frequency and magnitude of infectious disease outbreaks are expected to rise. Although emergency vaccine stockpiles have emerged as a strategy to hedge against sporadic demand and accelerate response efforts, their long-term management is complex.OBJECTIVEThis study investigates the role of global emergency vaccine stockpiles in achieving public health goals over time and underlying health system structures that drive their performance, with an application to cholera.METHODSA qualitative study design was used, combining insights from literature and semi-structured interviews with experts engaged in stockpile-related activities. A systems analysis, using qualitative causal loop diagrams, helps explain global stockpile behavior and discuss leverage points for change. It includes identifying system elements, important relationship between them, and resulting feedback loops.FINDINGSDespite expanding the stockpile for oral cholera vaccines, growing supply shortages since 2021 can partly be explained by increased demand due to a surge in outbreaks and the accumulation of evidence on vaccine effectiveness. These supply constraints have led to delays fulfilling vaccine orders for reactive campaigns and a pause on preventive use, leaving populations vulnerable. Despite ongoing efforts to scale-up production, a continued challenge is designing effective risk-sharing policies to attract manufacturers given uncertainty in demand forecasts and erratic orders. In literature, the time-dependent and complex environmental, social, demographic, and structural drivers that underpin the emergence and spread of disease are rarely jointly considered, making it difficult to anticipate the changing role and use of stockpiles relative to other preparedness strategies. Over time, global emergency vaccine stockpiles can support the transition from reactive to proactive strategies, helping achieve evolving public health goals towards disease elimination.CONCLUSIONSAs disease epidemiology, vaccination strategies, uptake, and supply markets evolve asynchronously, there is a need for decision-support tools that better integrate supply and demand dynamics, hence expanding traditionally narrow model boundaries.